US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran will soon have a missile capable of striking the United States is not supported by US intelligence reports and appears to be exaggerated, according to three sources familiar with the assessments. This casts doubt on part of his case for a possible attack on the Islamic Republic.

In his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, Trump began setting out his case to the American public for why the US could launch strikes against Iran, saying Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the United States.

However, there have been no changes, two sources said, to an unclassified 2025 US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a “militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile” (ICBM) from its existing satellite-launch vehicles (SLVs).

“President Trump is absolutely right to highlight the grave concern posed by Iran, a country that chants ‘death to America’, possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.

One source said that even if China or North Korea — which closely co-operate with Iran — provided technological assistance, Iran would probably take up to eight years at the earliest to produce “something that is actually ICBM-level and operational”.

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The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence, said they were unaware of any US intelligence assessments indicating that Iran was developing a missile capable of striking the US mainland in the near term, though they did not rule out the possibility of a new assessment of which they were unaware.

The New York Times first reported that US intelligence agencies believe Iran is probably years away from possessing missiles that can strike the United States.

Trump’s claim about Iran’s missile capability came as representatives from the US and Iran negotiate over Tehran’s nuclear programme, with no sign of a breakthrough that could avert potential US strikes amid a significant military build-up in the region.

The US president has offered little public explanation as to why he might lead the US into its most aggressive action against the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.

In his address on Tuesday, Trump cited Tehran’s support for militant groups, its killing of protesters, and the country’s missile and nuclear programmes as threats to the region and the United States.

Without providing evidence, Trump said Tehran was beginning to rebuild the nuclear programme that he claimed had been “obliterated” by US airstrikes last June on three major uranium enrichment sites.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday referred to Iran’s ballistic missile programme in less definitive terms than Trump, saying Tehran is “on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental US”.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear arsenal, saying its uranium enrichment — a process that can produce fuel for power plants or nuclear warheads, depending on the level and duration — is strictly for civilian purposes.

In an interview with India Today TV released on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that Iran was expanding its missile capabilities.

“We are not developing long-range missiles. We have intentionally limited their range to below 2,000 kilometres,” he said. “We don’t want to be a global threat. We only have them to defend ourselves. Our missiles provide deterrence.”

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The US intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, have said Iran halted a nuclear weapons development programme in 2003.

However, according to the IAEA, Tehran has in recent years continued enriching uranium, including to near weapons-grade levels.

Trump has threatened to attack Iran if it executes individuals arrested during nationwide anti-government protests in January or fails to agree a deal on its nuclear programme in talks with the US.

Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, with missiles capable of striking Israel, US bases in the region and parts of Europe.

It has also developed so-called satellite-launch vehicles that have placed satellites into orbit, and which experts say could be adapted into ICBMs capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

While SLVs launch satellites, ICBMs deploy re-entry vehicles designed to shield warheads from the extreme heat and forces generated during descent through the Earth’s atmosphere.

However, David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, said Iran remains far from being able to mount a nuclear warhead-carrying re-entry vehicle atop a missile capable of surviving the intense heat and stress of atmospheric re-entry.

“Iran can launch a very long-range missile because of its space launch programme,” said Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security think tank. “But it needs substantial work to develop an adequate re-entry vehicle.”

Albright and other experts noted that Israeli airstrikes last year and in 2024 severely damaged key facilities where Tehran produces liquid- and solid-fuel ballistic missiles.