Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen into a life-threatening Category 5 hurricane that could swerve into the northeastern US in just days.
The slow-moving storm has been stuck in the Caribbean all week, but meteorologists have said that the stiff breezes which kept Melissa in check are about to fade, setting the stage for the tropical cyclone to grow rapidly.
Melissa only has sustained winds of 45 mph as of Friday morning, but the latest forecasts warn the storm could explode by Sunday, with winds exceeding 130 mph as the warm Caribbean waters fuel the hurricane.
Both Jamaica and Cuba are in the immediate path of the impending hurricane and meteorologists from AccuWeather warned that the entire region should expect multiple feet of rain, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, and widespread power outages.
In the US, long-range forecasts show Melissa’s path into the Atlantic is still uncertain, but some potential tracks have predicted that the hurricane could take a similar route to the East Coast that Superstorm Sandy did in 2012.
The latest spaghetti models created by Google DeepMind’s AI forecasting system show the potential Category 5 hurricane curving into the Northeast and New England, impacting states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva explained that the natural jet stream which moves from west to east across the US will end up determining if Melissa makes landfall in the Northeast.
If the jet stream forms a strong dip over the eastern US next week, it could pull Hurricane Melissa north toward the Northeast.
Tropical Storm Melissa (pictured on radar) is projected to intensify into a major hurricane this weekend as wind shear in the Caribbean fades
Spaghetti models for Melissa warn that the hurricane could take a wide selection of routes after leaving the Caribbean, including some hitting the US
As the impending hurricane continues to brew south of Jamaica, DaSilva added that there’s a real possibility the storm will see its winds increase to more than 157 mph, making it the third hurricane to reach Category 5 strength this year.
‘The exceptionally warm waters, reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel — providing extra energy for Melissa,’ DaSilva explained in a statement.
‘People in the path of this storm need to prepare for the risk of catastrophic impacts,’ he added.
To this point, wind shear in the Caribbean has been the key to holding Melissa in check, creating disruptive gusts that can weaken storms and break up their structure.
The AccuWeather team noted that this was the case on Wednesday and Thursday, nearly causing Melissa to collapse back down into a tropical depression with winds falling to 40 mph.
However, those winds are now expected to die down over the weekend, allowing Melissa to form a powerful and organized core of warm Caribbean moisture and severe thunderstorms.
Current forecasts have revealed that Melissa will barrel over the heart of Cuba by Wednesday and enter the Atlantic on Thursday.
Once there, the timing of the U-shaped ‘dip’ in the jet stream over the US could determine if Melissa turns into the East Coast.
Google DeepMind’s AI forecasting system has warned that Melissa may make landfall in the Northeast or New England next week
Tropical Storm Melissa has already brought flooding and dangerous winds to parts of the Caribbean, including the Dominican Republic on Thursday (pictured)
If the jet stream bends far enough south, it could act like a scoop that grabs Hurricane Melissa and steers it northward towards mid-Atlantic states like Maryland and Virginia, or towards the Northeast and New England.
Right now, the majority of the storm tracks show Melissa staying away from the East Coast and veering out to sea.
However, the spaghetti models have remained extremely scattered in comparison to other major hurricanes this year, showing the uncertainty surrounding this current storm.
A spaghetti model shows a collection of lines representing the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Each line represents one model’s guess about where the storm could go. When the lines are closer together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.
To this point, no Atlantic hurricanes have made landfall in the US this year. Melissa is the 13th named storm in the Atlantic this hurricane season, which does not end until November 30.
If the more unlikely tracks end up being right, Hurricane Melissa could be the first hurricane to threaten New England since Hurricane Bob made landfall in August of 1991.
If the tracks showing a potential landfall in New York are accurate, Melissa may end up taking a eerily similar path to Superstorm Sandy.
That storm barreled over Cuba on October 25, 2012, before curving out into the Atlantic and then swerving into the New York-New Jersey area on October 29.
