Hurricane trackers raised the development odds of Storm Melissa to 90 percent Monday afternoon, with some experts warning of a possible impact on the US. 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the likelihood of formation in the next seven days from 80 percent.

The system, currently a tropical wave, also has a high 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours, up 20 percent from the morning. 

A tropical depression is a low-pressure system with organized thunderstorms and winds below 39 mph and a tropical storm is stronger, with winds between 39 and 73 mph and usually given a name. The next name on the list would be Melissa. 

Although models show uncertainty about the system’s path, storm chaser Mitch West warned on X: ‘You would be a fool to say this has zero percent chance of impacting the US.

‘The chances are low but it’s certainly possible, and we have surely seen it happen in the past. With a large trough signal showing up at the end of the month, you can have weird stuff happen depending on its position. 

‘A trough doesn’t always push things out to sea; it can sometimes pull on things.” 

Forecasting models suggest three main scenarios: the storm could rapidly strengthen and hit Hispaniola, develop slowly to strike Nicaragua or Honduras, or, in an extreme scenario, move close to South Florida, including the Keys. 

This is a developing story… More updates to come.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the odds of the system developing to 90 percent, noting it should be a tropical depression or named storm in the next seven days

Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at Florida’s WINK News, echoed West’s comments, saying: ‘Florida is not in the clear yet.

‘Remember, models are analyzing something that hasn’t even formed! A possible blocker could be a cold front sweeping by around Halloween, but the timing will be a big factor.’

The NHC said that the tropical wave, the early stage of a tropical system, ‘is gradually becoming better organized and is likely to become a tropical depression or storm over the Central Caribbean Sea during the next few days.’

‘While there is significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of the system, interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamacia and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week,’ the agency added.