Rhun ap Iorwerth has said May’s Senedd election is now a “two-horse race” between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, declaring Labour is “over” in Wales.

The party will gather in Newport this weekend for its spring conference, where the Plaid leader is expected to outline his priorities for the first 100 days of his government, should his party win power in May.

Ahead of his speech on Friday, he is expected to say: “We offer hope, hope that can overcome people’s fears of other political forces leading Wales down a dark path.

“Hope that things can improve in our health service, that our elderly relatives will not have to endure long waits for treatment, and that the burden of childcare costs on our sons’ and daughters’ household budgets can be eased.”

Mr ap Iorwerth will also criticise Reform UK over its recent high-profile defections from the Conservative Party and will say Reform has “zero loyalty to Wales“.

“A Reform government full of ex-Tories would set our country back decades. Faceless candidates and feckless council leaders from Northumberland to Kent are the canaries in the mine when it comes to what Farage has in store for our parliament and our people.”

He will add “they say they accept devolution, for now. But they’d turn against it on a whim. We all know they have zero loyalty to Wales and our nationhood”.

The leader of Reform in Wales has accused Plaid Cymru of having “propped up” Labour in the Senedd.

Dan Thomas, leader of Reform Wales, told Sky News: “In May, Wales has a clear choice. On the one hand is Plaid, who have propped up Labour in the Senedd and who have supported policies like the Nation of Sanctuary. On the other is Reform, who will scrap the Nation of Sanctuary and deliver the real change Wales deserves.”

On Saturday, Mr ap Iorwerth is expected to unveil his First 100 Days plan, arguing a Plaid Cymru government would “do politics differently” in Wales.

“From Brexit to COVID, a sense of being unheard and not listened to has been normalised.

“A feeling of being left behind, of helplessness in the face of events and tribulation, of being let down, even abandoned by conventional politics – and the ‘establishment political parties’ – is manifest.

“We have to promote the kind of democracy that engages people and dispels cynicism.”

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A Welsh Labour spokesperson said: “While Plaid spin slogans and avoid explaining how they’d pay for their fantasy politics, Welsh Labour is focusing on delivering for the people of Wales.”

The spokesperson added: “We’re investing in a clean, green energy-independent Wales of the future, bringing new skilled jobs, while Plaid come to the realisation that their own net zero policies are unrealistic. Only Welsh Labour has the ambition and record to create a fair future for Wales.”

Recent data suggests that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are the two parties leading the polls. Polling of more than 1,000 voters in Wales’s most rural constituencies is no different.

Data exclusively shared with Sky News of more than 1,000 people across Wales’s most rural seats shows Plaid Cymru ahead in rural Wales, followed by Reform.

The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) data shows support at: Plaid Cymru 22.3%, Reform 16.7%, Green Party 14.5%, Labour 13.5%, Conservatives 12.9% and the Liberal Democrats 7.9%.

Among respondents who say they would not consider voting Labour, 20% cite the party’s performance in Westminster as their main reason, level with concern over the cost of living. Farming and rural policy follows at 15%.

Victoria Bond, director CLA Cymru, says rural Wales feels increasingly ignored.

“A third of the country lives outside the cities, yet too many feel shut out of the decisions that shape their lives. Families are being priced out of their own villages. Long-standing businesses are under strain.”

She added: “Planning rules block growth before it begins. It is getting harder to stay and harder to build a future.

“The countryside is not owned by any party. It is there to be won. Any party with a serious plan for rural Wales will find support. Those who treat it as a nice place for a walk will not.”

Wales will go to the polls on 7 May, with counting set to begin at 9am on Friday. Full results coverage will be broadcast live on Sky News.