This is the moment polling expert Martin Baxter issued his snap verdict on the Gorton and Denton by-election.

Mr Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, outlined a major political shift as polls closed on Thursday night.

“It’s a very interesting and slightly unusual seat up in Manchester there,” he said – and pointed out how it was Labour’s 38th-safest seat at the General Election.

But, he added, “it’s looking like that is under threat”.

“Labour may well lose that seat tonight,” Mr Baxter continued. “We’ll have to see… “That’s one big change, the other big change – and maybe we should have a minute of silence for this – for the death of the old model of British politics.

“Over the last 150 years, the dominant parties in this country have been Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Party.

“And it’s looking like tonight those parties combined will get less than 50 per cent of the vote.”

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