Petrol and diesel drivers could soon be hit with sharply rising fuel bills as the conflict involving Iran pushes up global oil prices.
New analysis suggested drivers may face paying more than £320 extra a year if the crisis continues to drive up crude prices.
Experts warned oil prices could climb between $100 (£75) and $120 (£89) per barrel as tensions in the Middle East threaten global supply.
The warning comes as drivers are already paying an average of 135p per litre for unleaded petrol, according to the latest figures from the RAC’s Fuel Watch.
If oil markets react strongly to the conflict, those prices could rise quickly at UK forecourts. Research by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) suggested that if crude oil reaches $100 (£75) per barrel, petrol prices in the UK could climb to about 150p per litre.
For a typical motorist driving around 8,000 miles a year, that would mean roughly £140 more in annual fuel costs. The situation becomes far more expensive if oil climbs even higher.
If crude reaches $120 (£89), analysts warned petrol prices could jump to around 170p per litre. Under this scenario, the average driver could end up paying more than £320 extra a year to keep their car on the road.
The analysis looked at the historical relationship between global oil prices and UK petrol prices between 1990 and the end of 2025.
New analysis has predicted petrol drivers could pay roughly £320 more this year due to global tensions
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GETTY/PAResearchers detailed how the most useful comparison comes from the period since April 2022, when fuel markets were heavily affected by the war in Ukraine, but UK fuel duty remained stable.
But signs that prices may already be rising are appearing across parts of the country. Some filling stations have reported long queues of motorists, with up to 90 cars waiting for fuel in certain areas.
There have also been reports of temporary shortages, as drivers rush to fill their tanks amid fears prices could rise further.
At one petrol station near Glasgow, petrol has already been seen selling for 169.9p per litre, almost exactly the level analysts predict if oil hits the highest forecast.
Global factors have led to the changing fuel prices | PA
The scenes mirror previous fuel scares, where motorists rushed to forecourts over concerns about supply and price increases.
While petrol and diesel drivers face rising costs, owners of electric vehicles are largely protected from the immediate impact of global oil price swings.
Electricity prices in the UK remain capped until June, helping to keep charging costs relatively stable for now. According to the ECIU, EV drivers have already saved more than £870 a year on average compared with motorists running petrol cars. Those savings could grow if oil prices continue climbing.
If crude rises to $100 (£75) per barrel, the annual saving for EV drivers could exceed £1,000, but if prices hit $120 (£89), the gap could increase to nearly £1,200 per year.
Experts warned that if fuel prices continue to rise it would benefit electric vehicle drivers
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GETTYElectricity bills are expected to rise later in the year as gas prices feed through into the energy market, something last seen during the 2021 gas crisis.
Colin Walker, head of transport at the ECIU, said: “This isn’t the first time that wars and global shocks have left British drivers facing a jump in their fuel bills, and it won’t be the last.
“But with over 1.8 million EVs now on the UK’s roads, there are an increasing number of drivers who are much more protected from these spikes in fuel prices.
“Accelerating the transition to EVs, increasingly powered by electrons generated by British wind and solar farms, will help the UK end its dependency on foreign oil and protect its drivers from volatile markets over which we have no control.”
