When it comes to conspiracy theories, there are some pretty extreme ones out there. 

While some people insist the Earth is flat, others are certain the world is secretly ruled by reptilian humanoids.

Now, a study has revealed that people who believe in these concepts are likely to be hugely overconfident.

And it could go some way to explaining why it’s impossible to try and change their minds.

Analysis of eight studies has found a consistent pattern among people who believe in conspiracy theories – they tend to be overconfident in their cognitive abilities and significantly overestimate how much others agree with them.

Scientists from Cornell University carried out the research in a bid to understand why people believe in wild claims, especially those that have been widely rejected by experts and the broader public.

They carried out eight separate studies involving 4,181 participants in the US who were asked to complete various cognitive tasks.

They were also asked to estimate how well they believed they had performed.

One of the most popular theories is that the Earth is flat, as depicted in this image. People who believe this are likely to be overconfident, the study found

By doing this, the researchers were able to work out how overconfident someone was. A participant who scored poorly but believed they did well would score highly for this trait.

The team then compared these overconfidence scores to how strongly individuals endorsed conspiracy theories, including that the moon landing was faked or that vaccines are part of a government control plot.

Analysis, published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, revealed a strong link between overconfidence and belief in extreme conspiracy theories.

The team also discovered that while only 12 per cent of participants believed in conspiracy theories, those who did believe them thought that nine in 10 people shared their views.

The ‘false consensus’ effect was strongest among the most overconfident individuals who not only believed incorrect things but also wrongly assumed that most others shared their views.

‘One of the thing that seems to distinguish – at least some – conspiracy theorists is not just that their beliefs seem to be based on poor evidence, but also that they appear so confident in their beliefs,’ study author Gordon Pennycook, an associate professor at Cornell University, told PsyPost.

‘The tendency to be overconfident in general may increase the chances that someone falls down the rabbit hole, so to speak, and believe conspiracies.

‘In fact, our results counteract a prevailing narrative about conspiracy theorists: that they know that they hold fringe beliefs and revel in that fact.’

Dr Gordon Pennycook said the most overconfident conspiracy theorists wrongly assumed that the majority of others shared their views

He added that particularly overconfident conspiracy believers ‘really seem to be miscalibrated in a major way’.

‘Not only are their beliefs on the fringe, but they are very much unaware of how far on the fringe they are,’ he added.

The study reads: ‘Why do people believe dubious conspiracy theories?

‘Although some research supports the idea that conspiracies fulfill important needs and motivations, our findings support the argument that an important element of conspiracy belief is cognitive.

‘We find that conspiracy believers are characterized by weaker analytic reasoning skills and, just as much, by a stronger disposition to toward overconfidence.

‘This overconfidence is also linked with a propensity to be largely unaware that most others disagree about believed conspiracy theories.’

The team warned that this has implications for efforts to fight the spread of misinformation as those who are at the most need of intervention are likely the least willing to recognise that they may be wrong.

WHAT IS FLAT EARTH THEORY?

Those who believe the Flat Earth Theory claim our planet is shaped like a flat disc instead of a sphere.

Because Earth’s surface looks and feels flat when we walk around it, the conspiracy theorists denounce all evidence to the contrary.

The leading theory suggests Earth is a disc with the Arctic Circle in the centre and Antarctica, a 150-foot-tall (45-metre) wall of ice, around the rim.

Those who believed the Flat Earth Theory claim our planet is shaped like a flat disc instead of a sphere. Pictured is a model presented to attendees at the first annual Flat Earth International Conference, held in North Carolina in November 2017

Theorists claim that satellite images and evidence pointing to a spherical Earth are part of a ’round Earth conspiracy’ orchestrated by NASA and other government agencies.

Proponents of the bizarre theory also claim the Earth is stationary in space rather than orbiting the sun.

Some believe the Earth is covered by a glass dome which sits over the flat disc.

The international scientific community has consistently denounced the Flat Earth theory.

Decades of space imagery and peer-reviewed astronomical research back their claims.

NASA has proved that the Earth is round using satellites, GPS and images from space, but ‘Flat Earthers’ believe the space agency is lying.