European natural gas prices surged by as much as 50 per cent on Monday after QatarEnergy suspended production at its main facilities following Iranian drone strikes.
The state-owned producer, which accounts for nearly a fifth of global LNG exports, halted operations at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial complexes after Qatar’s Defence Ministry confirmed two Iranian drones had struck the sites.
The sharp escalation delivered the most severe shock to gas markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago reshaped global energy flows.
Markets had already been unsettled by the widening confrontation involving Iran, the United States and Israel before the production suspension intensified volatility.
Benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures climbed 49.1 per cent to €47.65 per megawatt hour by early afternoon, after opening 25 per cent higher in what marked the largest single-day rise since August 2023.
UK natural gas futures for April delivery rose 45.6 per cent to 113.44 pence per therm by 1:13pm CET.
Earlier in the session, before confirmation of the production halt, prices had already gained more than 20 per cent to exceed €38 per megawatt hour.
The April Dutch benchmark contract reached €45.285 per megawatt hour at 1:10pm CET, representing a 41.7 per cent increase on the day.
European gas markets surge
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Investors closely monitored the near standstill in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy shipments.
Approximately 80 million tonnes of LNG transit the Strait annually, equivalent to 19 per cent of worldwide supply.
The waterway also carries close to 20 million barrels of crude oil per day, roughly one fifth of global output.
Military operations targeting Iranian leadership prompted retaliatory strikes using ballistic missiles and drones against US assets and regional allies, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
President Trump said the military action will continue until the US fulfils all of its combat objectives
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Three oil tankers sustained damage in the region over the weekend, further heightening concerns about energy supply security.
Although most LNG passing through the Strait is destined for Asian buyers, disruptions typically affect pricing across all major markets.
Europe remains particularly exposed after increasing reliance on LNG imports to offset reduced Russian pipeline deliveries since the Ukraine conflict began.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said a one-month closure of the Strait could result in European gas prices more than doubling from current levels.
The bank’s commodities team projected that TTF prices could rise towards €74 per megawatt hour, approximately 130 per cent above Friday’s closing levels, if LNG flows were completely halted for four weeks.
A disruption lasting longer than two months could see prices exceed €100 per megawatt hour, according to the same analysis.
Comparable price levels during the 2022 European energy crisis prompted significant reductions in industrial and household demand.
With the heating season drawing to a close, European nations are preparing to replenish storage facilities ahead of winter, increasing sensitivity to supply interruptions.
Until last Friday, TTF futures had shown little indication of a geopolitical risk premium, highlighting the speed and scale of Monday’s market reaction.
