International energy markets are bracing for severe turbulence following coordinated United States and Israeli air strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile attacks across the Gulf region. The confrontation has heightened concerns over oil exports from the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly 20 per cent of global crude supplies.

Although there has been no confirmed structural damage to major oil and gas installations so far, the scale and duration of the unfolding conflict will be decisive in determining the full impact on global energy flows. Even in the absence of direct hits on infrastructure, uncertainty alone is already unsettling markets and shipping routes.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, had already climbed to around 70 dollars per barrel in recent weeks — its highest level since August 2025 — amid growing anticipation of military escalation. Analysts expect further price volatility when trading resumes, with the potential for sharp increases if tensions persist.

On Saturday, US and Israeli forces reportedly targeted senior Iranian leadership figures, expanding hostilities across the region. US President Donald Trump described the strikes as necessary to neutralise security threats and suggested they could create political change within Iran. Tehran responded with missile launches that triggered explosions reported in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, both significant oil exporters. Qatar, one of the world’s leading liquefied natural gas suppliers, confirmed it intercepted missiles directed towards its territory.

Blasts were also heard in Bahrain and near Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal, through which the vast majority of Iranian crude shipments typically pass. However, shipping data indicates that much of the oil stored at the facility had already been loaded onto tankers in recent days.

Crucially, there have been no confirmed interruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor between Iran and Oman that handles nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products. Historically, the strait has never been fully closed, but it remains highly vulnerable during periods of regional tension.

Industry participants warn that perceived risks may prove as disruptive as physical damage. Concerns that tankers could be stranded inside the Gulf or exposed to attack have prompted some oil companies and trading houses to temporarily suspend shipments through Hormuz. Freight rates for very large crude carriers have surged, with benchmark Middle East-to-China rates reportedly more than tripling since the beginning of the year.

The prospect of temporary disruptions, including potential mine-laying or limited naval confrontations, is fuelling price volatility. During the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, Iran targeted commercial shipping, prompting US naval escorts under Operation Earnest Will. More recently, tensions resurfaced in April 2023 when Iran seized the Advantage Sweet tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

Despite these risks, the global oil market currently benefits from relatively ample supply. Output growth in the United States, Brazil and Canada has strengthened the supply cushion. Saudi Arabia has also increased crude exports, with February shipments expected to exceed 7 million barrels per day, according to shipping analytics data.

The oil alliance known as OPEC+ is anticipated to consider raising production further at its upcoming meeting. However, any prolonged disruption to Gulf export routes could offset additional output, particularly if the conflict expands to target oilfields, terminals or processing facilities.

While the worst-case scenario has yet to materialise, the present instability is already exerting significant pressure on global energy markets. The coming days will determine whether this crisis remains contained or develops into a sustained shock to one of the world’s most critical supply corridors.