On February 9, Pakistan military’s media wing issued a statement marking the conclusion of multinational drills. The handout was accompanied by a series of images. One photograph, however, stood out: Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir standing alongside a contingent of Bangladesh’s army. It was not a mere optic. It symbolised the quiet but unmistakable transformation under way in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations.

Only two weeks earlier, the two countries resumed direct flights after a 14-year hiatus. Last year, DPM/FM Ishaq Dar travelled to Dhaka, the first visit by a Pakistani foreign minister in 13 years. Several high-level exchanges followed, underscoring the renewed warmth.

Such developments would have been unthinkable a few years ago. During the 15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh virtually shut the door on any meaningful rapprochement with Pakistan. The Awami League government forged exceptionally close ties with India, prompting critics to argue that New Delhi, not Dhaka, had become the ultimate seat of influence.

That calculus changed dramatically in August 2024, when Hasina was ousted following a violent uprising spearheaded by Bangladeshi students. The shift was tectonic. Many young Bangladeshis accused India of propping up an increasingly authoritarian regime and undermining democratic institutions. Their anger deepened when New Delhi provided shelter to the fleeing Hasina and continued to shield her despite repeated calls for extradition.

Amid this reset, Bangladesh’s ties with Pakistan gathered momentum. The interim government rolled back years of restrictions on Pakistani diplomats, eased visa curbs and removed barriers to exports. There have been growing calls within Bangladesh for closer defence cooperation. The Bangladesh Air Force chief recently visited Islamabad, where discussions reportedly focused on a potential JF-17 fighter jet deal. Initiatives that once seemed politically impossible are now firmly on the table.

Against this backdrop, Thursday’s landmark elections in Bangladesh carried not just domestic significance but profound geostrategic implications. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), marginalized during Hasina’s tenure, swept the polls with a two-thirds majority. The Jamaat-e-Islami, previously banned, won parliamentary representation for the first time in years.

Tarique Rahman, who returned from exile days before the vote, is set to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister. The son of former premier Khaleda Zia and late president Ziaur Rahman, Tarique represents a political tradition historically more open to balanced regional engagement.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to call Tarique Rahman to congratulate him, an early indication that New Delhi is keen to retain influence in Dhaka despite recent turbulence.

What it means for Pakistan and the region

Under the Awami League rule, Pakistan struggled to reset ties. Hasina repeatedly linked normalisation to a formal apology over the events of 1971. Islamabad maintained that its leaders had already expressed regret and argued that the matter was addressed under the 1974 tripartite agreement signed by Pakistan, India and the newly formed Bangladesh.

The BNP’s return alters the equation. Historically, Pakistan–Bangladesh relations were relatively smoother during governments led by the BNP. Yet experts caution against simplistic assumptions. Tarique Rahman is unlikely to pursue an anti-India or anti-Pakistan policy. Bangladesh’s economic rise and strategic location demand a pragmatic, multi-vector foreign policy.

Still, Pakistan appears to enjoy a relative advantage at this juncture. Public sentiment in Bangladesh has shifted, particularly among the youth. Defence cooperation, trade, connectivity and people-to-people exchanges are expanding. If nurtured carefully, these openings could institutionalize a more durable partnership.

For India, the challenge will be recalibration rather than confrontation. Bangladesh remains too important, geographically, economically and strategically, for New Delhi to lose ground. Expect India to intensify diplomatic outreach and economic incentives to preserve its stakes.

The emerging picture suggests not a zero-sum contest but a rebalancing. Bangladesh under Tarique Rahman is likely to diversify its partnerships, reduce overdependence on any single power and assert greater strategic autonomy.

For Pakistan, the opportunity is real but so is the test. Converting symbolic gestures into sustained cooperation will require patience, sensitivity to history and a forward-looking agenda. If managed wisely, the image of Pakistan’s army chief standing with Bangladeshi troops may well be remembered as more than a photo-op, it could mark the beginning of a new regional alignment in South Asia.